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REAL ESTATE IN HAWAII
BUYERS! If you are interested in receiving active Hawaii Real Estate listings emailed to you, try our "Advanced Search" function. It's FREE and designed to help you get acquainted with what's going on in the Hawaii real estate market. Have new listings automatically emailed to you in "Real Time" as soon as they become available on the MLS system. SELLERS! Before you sell your property, you should know the market conditions in your neighborhood. Research Oahu Real Estate Sales and Statistics; you will be able to acquire the sales history and market averages in your neighborhood as well as island wide. Our company statistics are as follows: we sell on average, 99% of the homes that we list, and proudly achieve on average, 97% of the list price for our Sellers. (averages as of Dec. 2010). Our goal is to obtain for you the highest net return on your property.
Our Platinum Program for Sellers features an exclusive web site just for your property. With over 80% of the buyers* searching for homes on the internet, access to the information becomes extremely important. A web site created for your property with all the information a buyer would need, advertised 24/7 is a powerful tool to sell your property faster! Our sites include links to bus schedules, neighborhood schools, shopping, restaurants, golf courses, grocery stores, copies of forms, property data, TMK maps, and more. List your property with us and ask your agent to create a web site just for you! *statistics provided by NAR 2010 survey Contact Information
Owner & Principal Broker Property Profiles Inc. 98-030 Hekaha St. #26 Aiea, HI 96701 Phone: (808) 487-9500 Fax: (808) 484-4051 Email: berton@pro808.com |
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OAHU REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
I was asked to summarize the 2011 Hawaii real estate market and the Oahu real estate market for a TV news interview, and what I said was...we're not doing too bad...if you compare us to specific cities across the country. Surprisingly, the overall trend nationally is that prices have dropped, but not an alarming amount, inventory is depleating, sales are increasing, and demand is strong. The same thing is happening here on all islands, and depending where, you have some local markets doing significantly better than others. Our national real estate economists are projecting a +2.5% growth in GDP, an increase in sales of 4.7%, and a 2% increase in home prices. Optimistic? I don't think so. My projection would be about the same for Oahu real estate and the Hawaii real estate market in general. Let's recap 2011 and see what the year end totals came out to. Single family sales decreased by - 2.7% which was not a whole lot. All the other islands were well into the positive numbers with Maui +10%, Big Island + 7.29%, Kauai up a whopping + 38.17%. Similar activity in the condo market with Oahu +1.3%, Maui +1.0%, Big Island +16.12%, and Kauai up +52.17%.
Median prices were again stable on Oahu with SF coming in at $575k or -3% down from last year, condo median at $300k (-1.6%). Maui's median for SF is at $433,500 (-6%), condos down to $310k (-18%), but note they have a lot of second home and resort inventory, Big Island SF at $243,750 (-4.41%), condos $226,900 (-15.96%), Kauai SF at $429k (-9.68%), condos at $315k (-8.89).
The bigger story though is in the inventory numbers. I've been harping on this and trying to point out for months now that our inventory numbers are declining and by a lot! Look at the past 6 months of inventory and the percentage drop from the previous year, I think the numbers speak for themselves.
So to summarize what happened in 2011, we had a year of declining prices (but not so much), an increase in sales activity, a decrease in inventory, and historically low interest rates. Could this be the "perfect storm"? The best of both worlds for a buyer? I think it is! For those negative thinkers that say things will only get worse, I can agree with you on one aspect, our national debt and local government debts are formidable factors which could derail any furture growth. That may impact the demand side of the equation, but think about it, Hawaii would have to lose an awful lot of jobs and people would have to migrate out of the state to equalize the declining inventory (supply side) of the equation. If employment stays anywhere close to neutral, we still have an imbalance of supply and demand which simple economics shows that price must adjust upward to reach equilibrium. Our forecast for 2012 is a duplicate of 2011 with a continued depleation of inventory, no new housing coming into the market, interest rates to stay low, and a pent up demand that is still increasing. Prices may rise across the board albeit slight, but if you are forecasting a downward price trend? I think you will be off the mark. In my presentation to the BOMA/ CCIM Real Estate Forecast on January 27th, I cite an example of an Ewa project (Montecito/ Tuscany) in which I tracked a sale of a 1,216 sf home in 2009 (sold for $340k) and a sale in 2011 at $385k. A $45k price increase in what everyone describes as a declining market. We see the new listings coming out at higher prices but most people track the market like we REALTORS do. Now is the time to buy! How long is this opportunity going to last? I don't know but I'm shopping right now! The best advice we can give is that in volatile times like this, it is imperative to really know what you are doing. More so than ever, using professionals to advise you becomes extremely important. If you are going to buy or sell, please feel free to give us a call. If you need to drill down to individual markets to see what's going on. Click here to get individual reports by neighborhood to see specific areas and the changes within that market. As always....the tag line of, "all real estate is local" is important to remember. *statistics provided by the Honolulu Board of REALTORS, Maui Board of REALTORS, Big Island Board of REALTORS, Kauai Board of REALTORS |
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